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Public Notices

April 18, 2014

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Prediction For Fall Weather
Shows Some Easing Of Rain

Sun Photo by O.J. Early

Expect a typical East Tennessee fall this year, according to predictions from the National Weather Service. The first day of fall is Sept. 22.

Originally published: 2013-08-26 10:37:11
Last modified: 2013-08-26 10:39:16
 


Upcoming Change

In Season Should

Be Big Difference,

Forecaster Says

BY O.J. EARLY

STAFF WRITER

Predictions are in: county residents should expect normal seasonal weather this fall.

According to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), temperature highs are expected to hover in the upper-50s -- average for that time of year -- during fall 2013.

NOAA's three-month temperature outlook is for September, October and November.

Current weather patterns also signal typical precipitation totals for Upper East Tennessee this fall, said Shawn O'Neal, meteorologist for the National Weather Service (NWS) in Morristown.

"The indication is for us to be near the climatic norm in terms of temperature and precipitation," O'Neal said.

FALL IS DRY SEASON

Fall is typically the driest time of year for East Tennessee, according to O'Neal.

The seasonal change will likely seem even bigger compared with this year's rain-soaked summer, he added.

"We've been in a pattern that has been wetter than normal," O'Neal said. "That's the main story of our summer this year.

"Because of that, we've had more cloud cover than normal ... cloud cover has been holding our temperatures somewhat below normal this summer season."

Rain this year has been record-setting.

The county has so far received 47.49 inches of rain from Jan. 1 of this year to Aug. 20, already more than the yearly average of 44.28 inches, according to the University of Tennessee AgResearch and Education Center on East Allens Bridge Road.

From September through November, the region generally sees between three-and-five inches of rain a month, based on data from the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA).

Statistics from the UT Center, the county's only official weather station, back that up.

Average rain totals in the county are: 3.25 inches in September, 2.35 inches in October and 3 inches in November, according to the weather station.

On average, October is the driest month of the year in Greene County.

MANY FACTORS

A number of factors influence East Tennessee's weather, O'Neal said late last week.

Examples include El Niño and La Niña, counterpart ocean-atmosphere phenomenons, he said.

"There is not a pattern anticipated where we would see a lot of Arctic air masses working their way down this far in the Southeast," he said.

"All these parameters lean toward a neutral position."

 
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