Here is part one of our annual deer forecast.

What's in a number? After the 2006 deer season, the number that everyone was looking at was the new harvest record for whitetail deer in Tennessee, and it was 182,093. When the 2007 deer hunts ended that number and the hopes of setting a new harvest record all but vanished thanks primarily to Mother Nature with a little help from human nature to boot.

When the deer figures were tallied with the end of the 2007 deer season, the final total harvest stood at 164,413 - a far cry from the previous record setting year. What happened? That question is easily answered by any deer hunter living within the borders of our great state. The resounding answer is Epizootic Hemorrhagic Disease (EHD) and its accompanying effects.

In the biggest EHD outbreak to hit the country in the past century, Tennessee Wildlife Resources Agency (TWRA) biologists estimate that somewhere around 60,000 deer were lost to the disease. Daryl Ratajczak, our big game coordinator and TWRA's leading deer man, went on to say that he believes the overall effects from the EHD effect led to anywhere from 20,000 to 25,000 deer being left out of the total harvest.

The effects of the disease were two-fold. Ratajczak said although EHD took out 60,000 deer from the overall harvest, the mental effects related to hunter attitude were just as real. The media was all over the EHD outbreak across the country. It was on just about every news channel from local networks to national ones, and it affected what hunters did. With the prospects of shooting a diseased deer looming on their minds, many hunters simply chose to stay home instead of hitting the woods. That combination led to the overall harvest decline and a letdown in the total number of deer harvested.

The good news in the nightmare, if you will, is the remaining deer in the population were left with more food reserves to sustain them throughout the deer season and on into the winter. The areas with the densest deer populations like Unit L suffered most, but the positive effect was the deer had more food to go around even in a year with little mast in many areas. What that means in the end is the deer in the woods when the 2008 hunts begin will be healthier and that includes the bucks that are out there awaiting you.

To get a clearer picture of where the deer are, we'll take a hard look at the top counties with the best harvests from 2007 and then break them down further with the top archery and top muzzleloader counties from last season. Yes, overall deer numbers as well as buck harvests were down, and Ratajczak said it'll take a couple of seasons or more for the deer population to rebound to its status of 2006, but the outlook is definitely a positive one.

In the next issue we'll look harder at buck numbers and where they came from. Despite the EHD factor of 2007, with healthy does and a good fawn recruitment year thanks to food surpluses, the 2008 hunts are promising. Don't expect to set a new harvest record, but definitely look to rebound with the herd - literally.

The top 10 deer producing counties is where the spotlight shines greatly on the counties in middle and west Tennessee. When it comes to overall deer harvest they are more than head and shoulders above the rest of the state, they dominate.

Likewise, for years now, Hardeman and Henry Counties have slugged it out as to which county was the top deer producer from year to year. That one on one fight came to an end after the 2007 deer hunts. Hardeman County hunters maintained their dominance with back to back top deer harvests, and Henry County fell out of the top three overall.

Hardeman County was the top deer county again in 2007 with a total whitetail harvest of 5,817 deer. Giles County made a move from its seemingly never ending third spot to second best in 2007 with a deer harvest of 5,076.

Fayette County moved to the third spot with a take of 5,064 whitetail followed by Henry County in the fourth spot with 4,942 deer tagged. Lincoln County hunters took the fifth place position in deer harvests with 4,260 deer. Franklin County made a move from the tenth spot in 2006 to sixth with 3,667 deer killed.

The seventh position was filled by Montgomery's harvest of 3,635 whitetails, one spot better than the prior year. McNairy County made a reappearance into the top 10 at the eighth spot with a kill of 3,580 deer. Weakley fell from seventh in 2006 to ninth in 2007 with a total deer harvest of 3,560 animals. The last and final top 10 position was taken by Carroll County's harvest of 3,527 deer after placing sixth in 2006.

It would be an injustice to the rest of the state if we didn't break down the harvests from the other regions. In Region III, Roane County was in familiar territory leading there with a harvest of 2,550 deer. The second place spot also remained unchanged after the 2007 hunts with Jackson County hunters harvesting 1,913 whitetails overall. The third spot in Region III went to Cumberland County with a strong harvest of 1,839 deer. Cumberland County moved ahead of Meigs and Rhea Counties which finished fourth and fifth in the region.

The top three deer producers in Region IV for 2007 remained unchanged from the prior year. Hawkins County again led the way, as has been the situation for years now, with a harvest of 2,468 deer. Claiborne County was again second with a whitetail harvest of 1,335 deer followed by Sullivan County in the third top spot in Region IV with 1,305 deer taken.

Top Archery Counties

The overall harvest wasn't the only figure to see a decline last year. The bow harvest was significantly down from 16,270 deer killed in 2006 to 11,902 whitetails harvested in 2007. The crossbow kill also declined from 5,519 deer in 2006 to 4,638 in 2007. All in all, that's a drop from 21,789 to 16,540 deer.

Region I led the overall archery harvest with 4,798 deer followed closely by Region IV's bow harvest of 4,521 whitetails. Region II was third in the archery take with 3,584 and Region III posted an archery kill of 3,217 deer.

Archery is where the Region III and Region IV hunters take the spotlight in the deer harvest figures. That's because 5 out of the top 10 archery counties lie in Region III and Region IV. Three out of the top five were from east of the state capitol. That's a vast improvement when compared to the overall harvest top 10 figures and shows more balance in archery harvests statewide.

Roane County led the archery harvest last season as was the case in 2006. This time with 475 deer killed followed by Hawkins County's 429 whitetails and Giles County's take of 422 deer. Hawkins County moved from fifth in 2006 to the second spot in 2007. The fourth top bow county claim belongs to Cumberland County's harvest of 361. Cumberland County was not in the top 10 in 2006. Lincoln County holds the fifth archery spot with a harvest of 358 deer. The sixth spot was claimed by Montgomery County bowhunters with 351 deer killed, a fall from the second spot in 2006.

Top Blackpowder Counties

You guessed it, the muzzleloader hunt totals from 2007 were also way off the mark when compared to 2006. In 2006, Volunteer deer hunters harvested 39,220 deer with blackpowder, which contributed heavily to the harvest record. In comparison, the muzzleloader hunts produced 33,100 deer in 2007.

Region III hunters took the most blackpowder deer statewide with a total harvest of 10,138 followed very closely by Region I's total muzzleloader kill of 10,029. Region II blackpowder enthusiasts weren't far off the lead lap with a kill of 9,078 deer. Region IV hunters brought up the blackpowder rear with 3,983 whitetails harvested.

Region III's Roane County was the top producer of muzzleloader deer again in 2007 with a harvest of 997 deer. Hardeman County was second with 865 whitetails taken, a step better than in 2006. Henry County hunters took the third spot with 843 blackpowder kills, also a step up from 2006 figures. Jackson County fell from sixth in 2006 to fourth in 2007 with 806 deer tagged.

Giles County maintained its hold on the fifth spot in the muzzleloader category with 795 deer harvested followed by Montgomery County's 736 deer. Fayette County moved from the ninth position in 2006 to seventh in 2007 with a blackpowder harvest of 723 whitetails. Weakley County also moved two spots to the eighth position with a take of 667 deer.

The TWRA said Tennessee's early wood duck/teal season will open thirty minutes before sunrise on Saturday, Sept. 13, and continue through Sept. 17.

The limit is four ducks, but no more than two of the four may be wood ducks.